Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Puzzle Platformer?

Perma Death + Puzzle Platformer

Only 16 developers shipped a Perma Death Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, PEPPERED: an existential platformer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×571 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 21 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $89 → $1.3k → $2.4k → $2.9k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $271k (exactly $271,169)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 72
Announced 21
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Puzzle Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Platformer, 3D Platformer, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark Humor, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 787 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $750, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lakeview Cabin Collection older $9.99 1,599 94% 48k $479k (exactly $479,220) Roope Tamminen
PEPPERED: an existential platformer $14.99 603 96% 18k $271k (exactly $271,169) Mostly Games
Neon older $16.99 55 96% 1.7k $28k (exactly $28,033) Dnovel
Ball Torture older $9.99 90 82% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) SufferSoft
Parking Together! $9.99 88 95% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) ENGAWA GAMES
Escape This older $4.99 140 59% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) Four Winged Studio
TitTok older $4.99 112 87% 3.4k $17k (exactly $16,766) Siberian Mouse
THE BYTE older $24.99 15 80% 450 $11k (exactly $11,246) AVAKE
RUNNER RTX older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
JUNGLE RUNNER older $24.99 12 75% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
Lazy Climbers $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Cool Car Studio
Kitty Rush $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) DFS
Bleb $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Pixel Cult
Joe and the Lost Pixels $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) RetroBlade Studios
UwU Hunter $3.69 12 91% 360 $1.3k (exactly $1,328) ZuggtGames
In & Out $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) KASTEN
Creation of a god: The Eternal Village $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Lost Dreams Games
TAU-09 $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) axsys_crash

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.