Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Psychological

Of 34 developers who shipped a Psychological Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 42 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $6.9k → $1.0k → $2.6k → $449 → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $87,692)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 66
Announced 42
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Walking Simulator, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,193 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $87k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk 2020 · $1.4M G.O.P.O.T.A 2023 · $1.3M Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike 2022 · $484k It Steals 2020 · $321k PEPPERED: an existential platformer 2025 · $271k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk older $1.49 31,802 96% 954k $1.4M (exactly $1,421,549) Nikita Kryukov
G.O.P.O.T.A older $29.99 1,493 81% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,252) VD Games, PropilGames
Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike older $4.99 3,230 87% 97k $484k (exactly $483,531) Rayll
It Steals older $4.99 2,144 98% 64k $321k (exactly $320,957) Zeekerss
PEPPERED: an existential platformer $14.99 603 96% 18k $271k (exactly $271,169) Mostly Games
INFERNIUM older $29.99 167 64% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Carlos Coronado
Chromosome Evil older $14.99 334 81% 10k $150k (exactly $150,200) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Project Songbird $14.99 195 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) FYRE Games, Conner Rush
Make Good Choices $2.99 556 88% 17k $50k (exactly $49,873) TN Games
Agarta older $2.99 498 71% 15k $45k (exactly $44,671) FF Digital
Together After Dark $2.99 405 53% 12k $36k (exactly $36,328) RedForge
Box of Broken Nails $4.99 181 97% 5.4k $27k (exactly $27,096) Cdodge, trushkeen
Liminal Exit $4.99 91 69% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) LittleRedDread
OVERDOSE $3.99 81 82% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) For Fun Games
Heat or Die $2.99 35 80% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Mounpeak Games
Forest 6174 $2.99 29 82% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) itandfeel
Yet Another Climbing Game $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) RAZE GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.