Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Point & Click game?

Perma Death + Point & Click

Of 28 developers who shipped a Perma Death Point & Click game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 32 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $359 → $150 → $2.5k → $537 → $299 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $21,878)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 61
Announced 32
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Point & Click; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 977 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 older $7.99 23,871 93% 716k $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) Scott Cawthon
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Spectator older $12.99 113 93% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,036) Minechan, Neko Machine
Sex Apartment 2: Grand Hotel $9.99 81 71% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) Dreamers Workshop
Sex Apartment 💫 $4.99 150 62% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) Dreamers Workshop
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Little Girl On Earth Asking Why She Asking Why $0.99 525 93% 16k $16k (exactly $15,592) senpi, Nolly
Italian Brainrot: In Prison $4.99 64 81% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) ShLeks, Hero
Myasoid older $4.99 26 88% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Fasu Studio
Loop//Error $2.99 40 95% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Koro Pixel Studio
Landonia · EA $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Landonia RPG
CurrentDay $2.99 12 100% 360 $1.1k (exactly $1,076) HB Studio
A Good Deed On Harris Avenue $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Daniel H. May
Landlord Quest $1.99 9 88% 270 $537 (exactly $537) katbrush

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.