Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Platformer?

Perma Death + Platformer

Of 81 developers who shipped a Perma Death Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $780, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $38k, ×81 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 90 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $2.7k → $748 → $356 → $1.0k → $1.5k → $779 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $779 (exactly $779)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $38,592)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 323
Announced 90
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 2D Platformer, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 14,746 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $780, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $38k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Spelunky older $14.99 14,676 92% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Mossmouth
Risk of Rain (2013) older $9.99 20,768 93% 623k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,170) Hopoo Games
Astral Ascent older $24.99 5,408 94% 162k $4.1M (exactly $4,054,378) Hibernian Workshop
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
Magicite older $9.99 5,802 85% 174k $1.7M (exactly $1,738,859) Sean Young
30XX older $19.99 2,514 90% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,646) Batterystaple Games
ScourgeBringer older $16.99 2,642 87% 79k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,627) Flying Oak Games, E-Studio
PEPPERED: an existential platformer $14.99 603 96% 18k $271k (exactly $271,169) Mostly Games
Aura of Worlds $14.99 101 96% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Cognitive Forge
Only Way is Down $9.99 137 63% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) Jilted Generation Productions
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Parking Together! $9.99 88 95% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) ENGAWA GAMES
Horny Haunts $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Naelstrof, Raliv, BigCozyOrca, Eugene
Nomyou $11.99 39 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Kudalyn's Creations
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
PixelBoss: Shattered Depths · EA $2.99 116 75% 3.5k $10k (exactly $10,405) Quacky Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.