Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Parkour

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Parkour game?

Destruction + Parkour

Only 10 developers shipped a Destruction Parkour game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Echo Point Nova, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $5.6M, ×8978 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Parkour
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $8.1k → $2.9k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Parkour: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,866)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,095)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 36
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Parkour
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Parkour
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 96% positive over 9,117 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $5.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
Severed Steel older $24.99 8,880 95% 266k $6.7M (exactly $6,657,336) Greylock Studio
Clustertruck older $14.99 14,706 93% 441k $6.6M (exactly $6,613,288) Landfall
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Crumble older $14.99 681 89% 20k $306k (exactly $306,246) BRUTE FORCE
GOAT OF DUTY · EA older $9.99 548 89% 16k $164k (exactly $164,236) 34BigThings
Lemma older $14.99 126 80% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) Helvetica Scenario
Time To Stop Time older $9.99 161 71% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) Sicarius
No Fair Play older $2.99 452 90% 14k $41k (exactly $40,544) Self MADev
SCHROTT: Roguelike Racer · EA $12.99 49 91% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Ivy Juice
A Game About Breaking Pots $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Glenn Verheij
Pigeon Hater $1.99 48 95% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) Gif2MemeGame
Arrows and Antiquity $4.99 16 87% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) True Neutral Studios
Landslip $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Pixel Doctrine
HyperLeap $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Tristan Landry
Explosive Race $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SHADOW
Rush or Die $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 朱莹

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.