Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Parkour game?

Parkour + Perma Death

Only 10 developers shipped a Perma Death Parkour game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, White Knuckle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.2k against a market of $630. 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 22 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Parkour + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $4.0k → $449 → $898 → $41k
Outcomes for Parkour + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,733)
Top 5% $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 48
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Parkour
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Parkour, Perma Death
Price point
$5.49 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 98% positive over 13,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $6.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Parkour with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Walking SimulatorFair38 devs · median $719 · 32 announced
  2. + Combat RacingFair26 devs · median $719 · 23 announced
  3. + Precision PlatformerLong shot310 devs · median $359 · 293 announced
  4. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  5. + SkateboardingPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds9 devs · median $4.2k · 33 announced
  7. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.4k · 72 announced
  8. + Dark FantasyPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 37 announced
  9. + ModernPoor odds10 devs · median $3.1k · 24 announced
  10. + CatsPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 18 announced
  11. + DestructionPoor odds10 devs · median $2.9k · 27 announced
  12. + StealthPoor odds26 devs · median $2.7k · 77 announced

All 109 pairs on the Parkour page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M Only Way is Down 2025 · $41k Gunstoppable 2026 · $22k SpeedOverflow 2023 · $17k RUNNER RTX 2022 · $9.0k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Only Way is Down $9.99 137 63% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) Jilted Generation Productions
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
SpeedOverflow older $4.99 116 72% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) 狼烟
RUNNER RTX older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
NO RELOADING: Survival Trials · EA older $14.99 18 100% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) ZoopTEK
Ninja or Die: Shadow of the Sun older $14.99 14 57% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Nao Games
Unbreakable Vr Runner older $3.99 44 97% 1.3k $5.3k (exactly $5,267) Miikka Åsnabrygg
Climbing Over It with a Spear older $5.99 22 86% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,953) Mega Drill
Unification · EA older $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Troy Spencer
Go Ahead $5.49 15 86% 450 $2.5k (exactly $2,470) Broken Project
Rogue Runner $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 42nd Machine
The King of Wall Street $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Yogo Studio
Rusty Heights $2.99 13 100% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Trompinette Studio
Void Climber $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) FuturePerfect Studio
Circus Challenge $0.99 12 75% 360 $356 (exactly $356) Angel Torres
Demons Killers $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Dakuro Wrld

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.