Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Survival game?

Survival + Outbreak Sim

Of 42 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1422 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 68 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $955 → $1.3k → $1.8k → $719 → $629 → $1.3k (still earning) → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 103
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 24,249 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Plague Inc: Evolved older $14.99 59,205 94% 1.8M $27M (exactly $26,624,488) Ndemic Creations
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville older $14.99 1,486 86% 45k $668k (exactly $668,254) Northway Games, Sarah Northway
Infectonator 3: Apocalypse older $12.99 1,250 83% 38k $487k (exactly $487,125) Toge Productions
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.