Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Shooter?

Shooter + Outbreak Sim

Only 17 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, No More Room in Hell 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $15M, ×23961 the market median. Revenue is up 1510% on the market; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1510% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $594 → $479 → $120 → $1.6k → $629 → $839 (still earning) → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,799)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $15,047,482)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 43
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1510% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Outbreak Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry FPS, Looter Shooter, Survival
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 18,636 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $630, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $15M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Perfect Heist older $4.99 398 76% 12k $60k (exactly $59,581) yeswecamp
Outbreak older $9.99 103 66% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Zero Tolerance older $11.99 65 80% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,380) Technopop
Last Generation: Survival older $19.99 20 50% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Furious Dogs
Outbreak: Epidemic older $9.99 28 42% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU
2 Hours Later $5.99 6 16% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) SevenGHON
Wendigo Land : Survive The Legend · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Apinat Studios
Creature Menace: The Ultimate Nightmare $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Blood Stain Games
PROMIZED LAND: Outer Town 2025 $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) PotaZOM, KRAKATOA STUDIOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.