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Should I ship an Online Co-Op Visual Novel?
Online Co-Op + Visual Novel
Only 7 developers shipped an Online Co-Op Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Love Begins With Goodbye, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×22 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.
Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.9k against a market of $1.5k. 22 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $839 (exactly $839) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.9k (exactly $4,940) |
| Top 25% | $157k (exactly $157,439) |
| Top 5% | $467k (exactly $466,748) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 38 |
| Announced | 22 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 85% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Online Co-Op
- effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Online Co-Op, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 42,516 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×22 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Bullet HeavenStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + TypingFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + TransportationPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
Comparable games
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet 2018 · $9.3M 
Monster Prom 2018 · $4.4M 
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris 2020 · $3.0M 
Monster Prom 2: Monster Camp 2020 · $1.8M 
Sword Art Online Re: Hollow Fragment 2018 · $1.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet | older | $19.99 | 15,461 79% | 464k | $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) | Dimps Corporation |
| | Monster Prom | older | $11.99 | 12,245 93% | 367k | $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) | Beautiful Glitch |
| | SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris | older | $19.99 | 5,017 61% | 151k | $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) | AQURIA Co., Ltd. |
| | Monster Prom 2: Monster Camp | older | $11.99 | 4,994 97% | 150k | $1.8M (exactly $1,796,342) | Beautiful Glitch |
| | Sword Art Online Re: Hollow Fragment | older | $19.99 | 1,862 78% | 56k | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,641) | AQURIA Co., Ltd. |
 | Escape Academy | older | $19.99 | 1,105 86% | 33k | $663k (exactly $662,668) | Coin Crew Games |
 | Love Begins With Goodbye | $15.99 | 973 94% | 29k | $467k (exactly $466,748) | 大王工作室, 框嗒网络 | |
 | Starlight Revolver | · EA | $12.99 | 404 54% | 12k | $157k (exactly $157,439) | Pahdo Labs |
 | Astatos | · EA older | $14.99 | 298 82% | 8.9k | $134k (exactly $134,011) | Studio Klondike Australia |
 | Lessons with Chii-chan | older | $19.99 | 157 63% | 4.7k | $94k (exactly $94,153) | Orcsoft |
 | Immortal Hunters | $19.99 | 95 67% | 2.9k | $57k (exactly $56,971) | Admiral Games | |
 | Market Simulator | $4.99 | 33 75% | 990 | $4.9k (exactly $4,940) | KOZGAMES | |
 | Girls Kitchen Dinner | $6.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | HKGamesSTUDIOS | |
 | Vanova's Stories | $19.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Madgik Yarn Studio | |
 | 100 Cats Lost In World 2 Find & Color | · EA | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Two Cats Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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