Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op JRPG?

Online Co-Op + JRPG

Only 11 developers shipped an Online Co-Op JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $350k, ×231 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $27k; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14142 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 230.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 16 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + JRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0M → $1.5M → $106k (still earning) → $594k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + JRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $27k (exactly $26,775)
Median $346k (exactly $345,755)
Top 25% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $21,184,269)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 61
Announced 16
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $29.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, JRPG
Price point
$29.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 29,744 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $350k, 1 in 4 over $3.6M, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 1 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  9. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  10. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced
  12. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $83k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M CODE VEIN 2019 · $83M Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M FINAL FANTASY XV WINDOWS EDITION 2018 · $47M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XV WINDOWS EDITION older $34.99 44,933 83% 1.3M $47M (exactly $47,166,170) Square Enix
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
GOD EATER 3 older $59.99 7,736 80% 232k $14M (exactly $13,922,479) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
StarArc Echo $5.99 149 66% 4.5k $27k (exactly $26,775) 兔狐喵菇工作室
PLAYNESE: Master Japanese · EA $19.95 17 94% 510 $10k (exactly $10,174) Wynand Smit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.