Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + LGBTQ+

Of 20 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $95k, ×63 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $120M, ×81120 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5M → $2.5M → $70k → $171k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $5.7k (exactly $5,741)
Median $95k (exactly $94,710)
Top 25% $2.0M (exactly $2,045,600)
Top 5% $122M (exactly $121,518,038)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 51
Announced 18
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Co-op, PvP
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 201,325 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.8k, median $95k, 1 in 4 over $2.0M, 1 in 20 over $120M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.8k. 2 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $83k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
Wolfenstein: Youngblood older $19.99 12,702 43% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,617,389) MachineGames, Arkane Studios
Call of Duty®: Vanguard older $59.99 4,172 67% 125k $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware)
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
The Headliners $7.99 8,534 86% 256k $2.0M (exactly $2,045,600) KAFI
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo
HYPERBEAT $14.99 381 99% 11k $171k (exactly $171,336) Dreamware Media
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.