Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Swordplay game?

Online Co-Op + Swordplay

Of 23 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2428 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 45 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 45 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $192k → $135k → $25k → $227k → $49k → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $597 (exactly $597)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,287)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 60
Announced 45
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Swordplay; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 12,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
Legendary Tales older $39.99 2,711 76% 81k $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) Urban Wolf Games Inc.
SWORD ART ONLINE Alicization Lycoris older $19.99 5,017 61% 151k $3.0M (exactly $3,008,695) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Ancient Kingdoms · EA $15.99 473 86% 14k $227k (exactly $226,898) Ancient Pixels
Crimson Capes $14.99 165 90% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Poor Locke
Varthos - Heir to the Throne · EA $19.99 82 68% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Nightshift Game Development
IRONSTRIKE $19.99 41 87% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) E McNeill
One More Delve $13.99 36 66% 1.1k $15k (exactly $15,109) ATVR
Crossings $9.99 29 75% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Neat Corporation

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.