Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Survival game?

Online Co-Op + Survival

Of 400 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 806 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.8k, ×4.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×8030 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 806 games are announced against 271 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 806 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 400
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $8.2k → $56k → $5.1k → $22k → $11k → $7.9k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 400
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Median $6.8k (exactly $6,829)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,837)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 400
Released games 1,021
Announced 806
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Action, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,022,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $6.8k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 160 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 806 games are announced against 271 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.