Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Spectacle fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Spectacle fighter?

Online Co-Op + Spectacle fighter

Of 24 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×946 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Spectacle fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $478 → $712k → $719 → $28k → $95k → $959 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Spectacle fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $94,710)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 72
Announced 28
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Spectacle fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
RWBY: Grimm Eclipse older $19.99 9,834 81% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,897,450) Rooster Teeth Games, FarBridge
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
STRANGER OF PARADISE FINAL FANTASY ORIGIN older $39.99 3,735 82% 112k $4.5M (exactly $4,480,880) Square Enix, KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
MEGATON MUSASHI W: WIRED older $49.99 688 78% 21k $1.0M (exactly $1,031,794) LEVEL5 Inc.
SpellForce 3 Fallen God older $19.99 1,335 86% 40k $801k (exactly $800,599) Grimlore Games
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4 DX older $49.99 475 85% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
GODBREAKERS $19.99 813 70% 24k $488k (exactly $487,556) To The Sky
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
Kings of Hell · EA $20.50 154 91% 4.6k $95k (exactly $94,710) StrawberryOctopus Productions
River City Saga: Three Kingdoms Next $29.99 37 62% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Arc System Works
异世界生存指南 $3.99 238 76% 7.1k $28k (exactly $28,489) 全自动花花
Super Shout Showdown · EA $7.99 111 83% 3.3k $27k (exactly $26,607) Rezero Studio
VEX MAGE $9.99 23 95% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Nervous Systems

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.