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Should I ship an Online Co-Op Simulation game?
Online Co-Op + Simulation
Of 520 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,083 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×6.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4315 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 1,083 games are announced against 337 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.0k (exactly $8,963) |
| Top 25% | $148k (exactly $147,526) |
| Top 5% | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 520 |
| Released games | 1,246 |
| Announced | 1,083 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Online Co-Op
- effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Online Co-Op, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Sandbox, Immersive Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 562,328 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 5 in 10 of the 259 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,083 games are announced against 337 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Bullet HeavenStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + TypingFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + TransportationPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
 | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
 | EA SPORTS FC™ 26 | $69.99 | 99,773 50% | 3.0M | $209M (exactly $209,493,368) | EA Canada, EA Romania | |
 | Arma 3 | older | $29.99 | 228,910 90% | 6.9M | $206M (exactly $205,950,327) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Raft | older | $19.99 | 323,481 93% | 9.7M | $194M (exactly $193,991,556) | Redbeet Interactive |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | NBA 2K26 | $69.99 | 25,651 66% | 770k | $54M (exactly $53,859,405) | Visual Concepts | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | F1® 25 | $49.99 | 25,395 87% | 762k | $38M (exactly $38,084,882) | Codemasters | |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
 | Pavlov | $24.99 | 37,865 88% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $28,387,390) | Vankrupt Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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