Do I ship it?

Games › Online Co-Op › Online Co-Op + RTS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op RTS?

Online Co-Op + RTS

Of 55 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×4.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $5.0M, ×3359 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 110 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 110 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + RTS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7M → $32k → $122k → $2.1k → $16k → $81k → $1.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + RTS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,182)
Top 25% $125k (exactly $125,275)
Top 5% $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 203
Announced 110
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 32%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, RTS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Co-op, Base Building
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 41,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $5.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER III 2022 · $189M Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition 2013 · $49M Company of Heroes 2 2013 · $41M Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition 2020 · $39M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Age of Mythology: Retold older $29.99 20,943 90% 628k $19M (exactly $18,842,417) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus Media, CaptureAge, Virtuos Games)
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Outworld Station $18.99 807 84% 24k $460k (exactly $459,748) Trickjump Games Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.