Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic

Of 116 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.7M, ×5207 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 262 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 262 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 116
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $26k → $135k → $23k → $31k → $11k → $4.8k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 116
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $114,485)
Top 5% $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846)
Developers, 2 yr 116
Released games 278
Announced 262
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 755,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $7.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Killing Floor 2 older $29.99 87,158 88% 2.6M $78M (exactly $78,416,053) Tripwire Interactive
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Into the Radius 2 $39.99 5,253 79% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) CM IMMERSIVE
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
No One Survived $16.99 6,969 64% 209k $3.6M (exactly $3,552,099) Cat Play Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.