Do I ship it?

Games › Online Co-Op › Online Co-Op + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Online Co-Op Perma Death game?

Online Co-Op + Perma Death

Of 60 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1891 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 146 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 146 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $12k → $1.1k → $6.6k → $51k → $4.8k → $959 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,521)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 130
Announced 146
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Action Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 364,602 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition 2020 · $53M Roboquest 2023 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition older $29.99 59,156 83% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,222,653) Undead Labs
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
Risk of Rain (2013) older $9.99 20,768 93% 623k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,170) Hopoo Games
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Subterror $7.99 397 90% 12k $95k (exactly $95,161) Team Monumental
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.