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Should I ship an Online Co-Op Open World game?
Online Co-Op + Open World
Of 264 developers who shipped an Online Co-Op Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 647 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $41k, ×27 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×16859 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 647 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $4.2k (exactly $4,200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $41k (exactly $40,780) |
| Top 25% | $805k (exactly $805,397) |
| Top 5% | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 264 |
| Released games | 834 |
| Announced | 647 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Online Co-Op
- effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Online Co-Op, Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,926,077 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 5 in 10 of the 121 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 647 games are announced against 169 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Online Co-Op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Bullet HeavenStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + TypingFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + TransportationPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
Comparable games
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
 | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
 | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
 | Terraria | older | $9.99 | 1,240,388 97% | 37M | $372M (exactly $371,744,284) | Re-Logic |
 | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
 | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
 | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
 | ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN | $39.99 | 129,476 83% | 3.9M | $155M (exactly $155,332,357) | FromSoftware, Inc. | |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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