Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Ninja

Only 8 developers shipped a Ninja Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Arashi Gaiden, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $720 against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 10 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 28
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 7,568 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Shogun Showdown 2024 · $2.8M Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder 2023 · $348k Sengoku Jidai: Shadow of the Shogun 2016 · $155k NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Soutenroku with Power Up Kit 2017 · $76k Smash Up 2016 · $30k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder older $24.99 464 77% 14k $348k (exactly $347,861) Game Source Studio
Sengoku Jidai: Shadow of the Shogun older $29.99 172 73% 5.2k $155k (exactly $154,748) Byzantine Games
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Soutenroku with Power Up Kit older $29.99 85 62% 2.6k $76k (exactly $76,474) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Smash Up older $6.99 141 60% 4.2k $30k (exactly $29,568) Nomad Games
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
Eye of the Commando · EA $14.99 34 100% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Adventurepro Games LLC
Spellsword Cards: Demontide older $5.99 79 60% 2.4k $14k (exactly $14,196) One Up Plus Entertainment
无限投影 older $0.99 213 58% 6.4k $6.3k (exactly $6,326) A2 Game Studio
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio
Disintegral $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Will Sykes Games
Kunoichi's Cadence $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) CodeBlues
Ninja Wars: Battle Simulator $0.99 5 40% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar
Ninja Numpties $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JJ H-E
Yomi-no-kuni · EA $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KZ Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.