Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Shooter?

Shooter + Ninja

Only 19 developers shipped a Ninja Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yasuke Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $599 → $2.9k → $240 → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $404k (exactly $403,672)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 65
Announced 12
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Hack and Slash
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 2,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $240, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Shadow Warrior older $29.99 15,960 92% 479k $14M (exactly $14,359,212) Flying Wild Hog
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
SENRAN KAGURA Peach Beach Splash older $29.99 3,885 81% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,495,334) Tamsoft
Shadow Warrior Classic Redux older $9.99 2,979 89% 89k $893k (exactly $892,806) General Arcade
Sword With Sauce older $4.99 5,762 86% 173k $863k (exactly $862,571) Diatomic Studios
Boomerang X older $19.99 1,228 95% 37k $736k (exactly $736,432) DANG!
Yasuke Simulator $6.99 1,925 97% 58k $404k (exactly $403,672) HistoryAccurateDevelopers
Ninja Stealth older $4.99 912 76% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) SC Jogos
Haneda Girl $14.99 74 94% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Studio Koba
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
TENGAI $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Zerodiv
Lightning Katana $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Juicy Pulp Games
Mukuro no Rasen $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Matrix Corporation
Samurai Ace $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Zerodiv
Glusiverse · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Trusiga
Sunset Street Ninja $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SkeletronMK, The1AndonlyBloo
Shuriken Practice 3 $7.99 1 0% 30 $240 (exactly $240) myBad Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.