Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Ninja

Only 8 developers shipped a Ninja Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, TENGAI, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 5 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 5 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 5
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,358 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $240, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $4.1k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 5 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SNK 40th ANNIVERSARY COLLECTION older $29.99 229 82% 6.9k $206k (exactly $206,031) Digital Eclipse
Mad Bullets older $14.99 266 92% 8.0k $120k (exactly $119,620) isTom Games Kft.
Ninjin: Clash of Carrots older $9.99 321 92% 9.6k $96k (exactly $96,204) Pocket Trap
Straimium Immortaly older $6.99 157 89% 4.7k $33k (exactly $32,923) caiys
Viro Move older $24.99 23 43% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) FIT REALITY
Waifu Uncovered older $3.99 133 77% 4.0k $16k (exactly $15,920) One-Hand-Free Studios
Venusian Vengeance older $3.99 81 90% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Renegade Sector Games
Agent in Depth older $2.99 108 93% 3.2k $9.7k (exactly $9,688) Naturepixel Studios, SkyBrave
Cold Vengeance older $9.99 27 77% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Renegade Sector Games
Knife To Meet You older $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Mate Magyar
TENGAI $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Zerodiv
Samurai Ace $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Zerodiv
Glusiverse · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Trusiga
Sunset Street Ninja $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) SkeletronMK, The1AndonlyBloo
Shuriken Practice 3 $7.99 1 0% 30 $240 (exactly $240) myBad Studios
Final Shot $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) AVTOSERVICE GAMES
Kunoichi's Cadence $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) CodeBlues
Blade of Jinshu $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Travis Carpenter
C64 & AMIGA Classix Remakes Sixpack 4 $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) magnussoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.