Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Shooter?

Shooter + Naval

Only 16 developers shipped a Naval Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of Water, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $4.2k → $1.2k → $11k → $1.2k → $59 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 62
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,955 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

UBOAT 2024 · $23M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Blazing Sails 2023 · $3.8M Age of Water 2025 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Blazing Sails older $14.99 8,361 87% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Combat Air Patrol 2: Military Flight Simulator · EA older $29.99 356 47% 11k $320k (exactly $320,293) Sim155 Limited
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Waves of Steel older $19.99 408 90% 12k $245k (exactly $244,678) TMA Games LLC
Out of Reach: Treasure Royale older $14.99 337 58% 10k $152k (exactly $151,549) Space Boat Studios
JAWS: Retro Edition $14.99 38 97% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Limited Run Games
Dragons Reef VR $19.99 4 50% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Radoslaw Kutowinski
Fuel Cell · EA $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Efshapo
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space
FEBA Gunship R $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) rucsgames
Airplane Flight Simulator : Combat Zone $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Ovilex Software
Moby Click $3.99 3 33% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Drew VanWagner
Line of Fire - Pirate Waltz · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Ige Olwen
Pirates of Gravitae $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Innerverse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.