Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Nature

Of 49 developers who shipped a Nature Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×219 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 107 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 107 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $891 → $2.2k → $2.2k → $2.6k → $1.7k → $2.5k → $599 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 122
Announced 107
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,963 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Terra Nil 2023 · $6.0M Wingspan 2020 · $5.9M Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen 2021 · $2.4M Niche - a genetics survival game 2017 · $2.4M Preserve 2025 · $259k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
Day of the Shell $14.99 382 68% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Duper Games
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Tenderfoot Tactics older $14.99 220 81% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchins… (Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchinson, Taylor Thomas, Zoe Vartanian, Madison Pathe)
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Sky Oceans: Wings for Hire $24.99 45 64% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Octeto Studios
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.