Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Mythology

Of 26 developers who shipped a Mythological Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4511 the market median. Revenue is up 1100% on the market; 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 1100% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $83k → $449 → $11k → $1.7k → $4.5k → $2.0M → $539 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,074)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 58
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1100% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Difficult, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 121,706 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
Okhlos: Omega older $12.99 633 78% 19k $247k (exactly $246,680) Coffee Powered Machine
Asura: Vengeance Edition older $9.99 555 85% 17k $166k (exactly $166,334) Ogre Head Studio
Exodus Borealis older $19.99 243 91% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) Smug Marmot Studios
Infinite Tao older $3.99 852 79% 26k $102k (exactly $101,984) insomnia
Trakonius · EA $9.99 305 84% 9.2k $91k (exactly $91,408) Edvar Studio
Spear Song · EA $14.99 170 88% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Divovision Games
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Dive The Depths $9.99 87 72% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,074) Frizuo, Starpixel Studios
Talespinner $14.99 53 71% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Flash Cat Games
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
Aksun · EA $11.99 32 78% 960 $12k (exactly $11,510) Wayway Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.