Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Mystery Dungeon

Of 43 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×111 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 59 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $35k → $2.2k → $4.3k → $1.2k → $3.3k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,848)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Top 5% $70k (exactly $69,830)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 121
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, RPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 1,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $69k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
Loop Queen-Escape Dungeon 3 older $19.99 611 84% 18k $366k (exactly $366,417) Hide Games
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
That Time I Got Reincarnated as an Orc older $18.99 391 89% 12k $223k (exactly $222,753) HONEYSOFT
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
The Crazy Hyper-Dungeon Chronicles $9.99 233 78% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Fix-a-Bug
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Gehenna $19.99 78 79% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) Kemuriya
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure Remastered Edition $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Bobo's Big Tower $9.99 93 92% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) SillyKitty
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.
Dragonero $19.99 38 68% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Operaludica

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.