Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Survival game?

Survival + Mystery Dungeon

Of 42 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $57k, ×92 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 68 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 68 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $7.4k → $150 → $2.5k → $449 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,571)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 154
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 1,086 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
The Backrooms: Survival older $9.99 881 82% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) RE:CODE
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Home and Dungeon older $16.99 333 84% 10k $170k (exactly $169,730) Manufacture
Dungeon Digger older $39.99 98 81% 2.9k $118k (exactly $117,571) Galactic Geckon
Magisterium: Fantasy Craft · EA older $14.99 232 69% 7.0k $104k (exactly $104,330) The Spiteful Games
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Spirit Animal Survival $19.99 96 62% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) TRUEFX GAMES
Santhai older $12.99 137 89% 4.1k $53k (exactly $53,389) Hardworker Studio, Rachan Neamprasert
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
The Maze Survivor: The 9th Entrants $8.99 62 82% 1.9k $17k (exactly $16,721) 崔资坦独立游戏Triztan IndieGame
Abyss: New Dawn · EA $24.99 19 63% 570 $14k (exactly $14,244) Aloya Productions
Dream Abyss: Survivors $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Studio215, NeonEggGames
Slendrina Remake $3.99 65 63% 2.0k $7.8k (exactly $7,780) GearMech
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune $12.99 11 81% 330 $4.3k (exactly $4,287) Astana Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.