Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Shooter?

Shooter + Mystery Dungeon

Of 21 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $13k, ×21 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $65 → $1.4k → $2.9k → $2.3k → $3.0k → $538 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $13,250)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 73
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 599 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
One More Dungeon 2 older $14.99 144 81% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Stately Snail
ARKOS older $9.99 179 78% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) RetroSouls
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Diabolic older $2.99 307 84% 9.2k $28k (exactly $27,538) MyDreamForever
Naau: The Lost Eye older $24.99 28 67% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Studio Gamebit
Death Below older $9.99 63 58% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Soft
F*ck the HELL out older $4.99 95 86% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Galactic Geckon
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
Masked Forces 2: Mystic Demons older $4.99 67 73% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,030) FreezeNova
Holy Shot $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) LoneWolf Digital Arts
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
Grabbus · EA $6.99 14 78% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Foxoplasm, LLC
Shadow of the Night $12.99 6 50% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Uğur ÇELİK
Forlorn: The mysteries of Highshadowland $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) The Spiteful Games
Demon Street $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Manycats Games
Arrow Dungeon $8.99 3 33% 90 $809 (exactly $809) ParkDol

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.