Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Space Sim?

Space Sim + Mystery

Only 9 developers shipped a Mystery Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Digger: Galactic Treasures, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×169 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Space Sim + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $106k (exactly $106,437)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 30
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 13,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deliver Us The Moon older $24.99 7,510 87% 225k $5.6M (exactly $5,630,247) KeokeN Interactive
Exo One older $16.99 5,053 89% 152k $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) Exbleative
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
Earth Analog older $19.99 101 65% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) Funcraft Games
SYMMETRY older $11.99 147 53% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Sleepless Clinic
Quantum Loop $5.99 17 100% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) slashslash, Declan Carveth
死前30天 · EA older $4.99 18 77% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Kwing works
Project Proxima older $4.99 18 88% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Luna Apps
100 Cats Lost In Space Find & Color $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Two Cats Games
BURN $2.99 26 92% 780 $2.3k (exactly $2,332) Wumbo Workshop LLC
Observa $5.99 10 90% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Morphic Studios
My Apollogies $3.99 5 60% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Spatium Interactive d.o.o
Observer Protocol: The Station - Second Shift $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BuderWorks
Station Nexus $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rudovia Subject
Universe X $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Oni7

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.