Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Modern
Should I ship a Modern-Day Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Modern
Only 16 developers shipped a Modern-Day Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Welcome to the Game III, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×818 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $598 (exactly $598) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,491) |
| Top 5% | $389k (exactly $388,606) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 40 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Modern
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, PvE
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,336 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
Welcome to the Game III 2026 · $389k 
UNDERWARD 2025 · $178k 
BURNED HORIZONS 2026 · EA · $39k 
MOTHER 2020 · $36k 
Elsie 2024 · $25k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Welcome to the Game III | $19.99 | 648 78% | 19k | $389k (exactly $388,606) | Reflect Studios | |
| | UNDERWARD | $9.99 | 593 73% | 18k | $178k (exactly $177,722) | INTENSE | |
| | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
| | MOTHER | older | $2.99 | 400 89% | 12k | $36k (exactly $35,880) | Anya Segarane |
| | Elsie | older | $19.99 | 41 70% | 1.2k | $25k (exactly $24,588) | Knight Shift Games |
 | ШХД: ЛЕТО / IT'S SUMMER | older | $9.99 | 57 68% | 1.7k | $17k (exactly $17,083) | ИЛЬЯМАЗО, GRüN STUDIO |
 | Status One | $14.99 | 30 73% | 900 | $13k (exactly $13,491) | LastCall Studio | |
 | Cocaine Dealer | · EA older | $3.99 | 109 80% | 3.3k | $13k (exactly $13,047) | Stone/Spark Games |
 | Mushroom Picker Simulator | older | $3.99 | 56 39% | 1.7k | $6.7k (exactly $6,703) | Poroshin Develop |
 | Death Elevator | older | $7.99 | 25 84% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | Games From The Abyss |
 | Breakfall: Nuclear Winter | · EA | $17.99 | 7 28% | 210 | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) | Dominik Geuer |
 | One Armed Bandit | $4.99 | 17 88% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | Gral | |
 | Xeno Strikers Hyper Squadron | $4.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Synthesizer Games | |
 | Chinese style school | $3.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $598 (exactly $598) | 柯志豪 | |
 | Uncanny Valley: Le Petit Morte | $14.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $450 (exactly $450) | Chris King | |
 | おじvsおじ | $3.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $239 (exactly $239) | スタジオ兄妹 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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