Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Modern

Of 48 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6136 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 70 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $28k → $4.7k → $17k → $17k → $51k → $13k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,422)
Median $17k (exactly $16,553)
Top 25% $473k (exactly $472,564)
Top 5% $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 108
Announced 70
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Simulation, PvP
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 58% positive over 146,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $470k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 5 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II older $69.99 26,543 45% 796k $56M (exactly $55,732,337) Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob)
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III older $69.99 20,701 47% 621k $43M (exactly $43,465,890) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware)
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
Tennis Elbow 4 $29.99 1,077 96% 32k $969k (exactly $968,977) Mana Games
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.