Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Survival game?

Survival + Mining

Of 90 developers who shipped a Mining Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 186 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 186 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $4.7k → $9.8k → $14k → $2.7k → $14k → $1.7k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $58,477)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,714)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 230
Announced 186
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Mining; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Exploration, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 17,898 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ICARUS 2021 · $59M My Time at Portia 2019 · $31M Stationeers 2017 · EA · $9.0M Space Engineers 2 2025 · EA · $4.6M Lightyear Frontier 2024 · EA · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Rising World · EA older $14.99 5,310 85% 159k $2.4M (exactly $2,387,907) JIW-Games
TerraTech Worlds · EA older $29.99 2,027 62% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,823,692) Payload Studios
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT
Stonewards · EA $9.99 806 94% 24k $242k (exactly $241,558) Banana Tiger Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.