Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Space Sim?

Space Sim + Mining

Of 35 developers who shipped a Mining Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 64 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $2.3k → $359 → $9.4k → $6.3k → $50k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,767)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 85
Announced 64
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Mining; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 16,302 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Interstellar Rift older $19.99 1,411 66% 42k $846k (exactly $846,177) Split Polygon
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
Astrox Imperium · EA older $14.99 1,236 83% 37k $556k (exactly $555,829) Jace Masula
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Space Colony: Steam Edition older $14.99 564 78% 17k $254k (exactly $253,631) Firefly Studios
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.