Do I ship it?

GamesMinigamesMinigames + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Minigames game?

Minigames + Mystery

Only 13 developers shipped a Mystery Minigames game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Feign, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1661 the market median. Revenue is up 2830% on the market; 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 2830% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Minigames + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $719 → $90 → $899 → $8.6k → $900 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Minigames + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,032)
Top 5% $789k (exactly $788,919)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 58
Announced 19
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2830% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Minigames; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Co-op, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,240 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Minigames with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds14 devs · median $53k · 6 announced
  2. + Immersive SimStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  3. + Life SimStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  5. + SandboxFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  6. + RomanceFair14 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  7. + ManagementFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  8. + ExplorationFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  9. + Action-AdventureFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  11. + HorrorFair12 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  12. + MagicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced

All 58 pairs on the Minigames page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Later Alligator older $17.99 2,749 96% 82k $1.5M (exactly $1,483,635) SmallBü, Pillow Fight
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
Parallel Experiment $9.99 702 84% 21k $210k (exactly $210,389) Eleven Puzzles
Stranded in Space · EA older $14.99 373 80% 11k $168k (exactly $167,738) Wildman
Mayor May Knott $24.99 189 100% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Ravenous Images
The Office Quest older $5.99 751 93% 23k $135k (exactly $134,955) 11Sheep
SPOOKWARE older $4.99 709 79% 21k $106k (exactly $106,137) BEESWAX GAMES
יום פתוח (Open Day) older $5.99 256 98% 7.7k $46k (exactly $46,003) Rafael Ben-Ari
Night Cascades older $9.99 144 94% 4.3k $43k (exactly $43,157) Hanako Games
Paranormal Detective: Escape from the 90's older $11.99 53 79% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,064) LunaBeat
Bittersweet Birthday $17.99 26 92% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) World Eater Games
Concierge $12.99 22 100% 660 $8.6k (exactly $8,573) KODINO
Count Meowcula's Barbershop $4.99 23 100% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Gabiverse
A Tale Of Shadows: Fragments Part I $29.99 1 0% 30 $900 (exactly $900) Madwriter Games
Welcome to Primrose Lake 5 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) SQRT3
Welcome to Primrose Lake 3 $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) SQRT3
Halloween Trouble 7: The Apprentice $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Ironcode Gaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.