Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Walking Simulator?

Metroidvania + Walking Simulator

Only 5 developers shipped a Metroidvania Walking Simulator in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Broken Reality 2000, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×7.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.0k against a market of $480. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 23 announced, ×7.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Metroidvania + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,819)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 31
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Walking Simulator
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,206 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 23 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dreaming Sarah older $5.99 2,301 92% 69k $413k (exactly $413,490) Asteristic Game Studio, Anthony Septim
Broken Reality 2000 $14.99 371 76% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Dynamic Media Triad
Pine Hearts older $12.99 78 94% 2.3k $30k (exactly $30,397) Hyper Luminal Games Ltd
Quantum Void $11.99 69 95% 2.1k $25k (exactly $24,819) TacNours
Cybermotion · EA older $7.99 77 80% 2.3k $18k (exactly $18,457) Lukayson
Lunnye Devitsy older $4.99 111 69% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) Boss Baddie
Hero's Spirit older $5.99 62 90% 1.9k $11k (exactly $11,141) mod.kitchen
Maptroid: Worlds older $2.99 84 94% 2.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,535) lozzajp
Simple Game older $6.99 24 91% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) SVGames
Falta older $4.99 29 96% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Revolto Software
Star Mission: Remote Sectors $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Ralph Schaedler
Low_Signal $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Jonathan Abat
Cats Ritual $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Source Byte, Nikodem Swider

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.