Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Time Manipulation

Only 10 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chrono Gear: Warden of Time, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $59k against a market of $480. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 124.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 20 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $899 → $92k
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Median $59k (exactly $58,911)
Top 25% $129k (exactly $128,871)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,715)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Time Manipulation
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,351 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $16k, median $59k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Luna Nights older $17.99 13,776 97% 413k $7.4M (exactly $7,434,907) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Timespinner older $19.99 2,823 86% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) Lunar Ray Games
CONVERGENCE: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 1,048 87% 31k $943k (exactly $942,886) Double Stallion
Chrono Gear: Warden of Time $17.99 950 98% 29k $513k (exactly $512,715) Team Chrono Gear, GalaxyTrail
Ary and the Secret of Seasons older $39.99 134 64% 4.0k $161k (exactly $160,760) eXiin, Fishing Cactus
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
MotionRec $9.99 430 99% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) HANDSUM
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Mai: Child of Ages $14.99 34 88% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Chubby Pixel
Time Flipper $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Lusho
Mayday $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) GTD
Times Dungeon $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Mad Quark

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.