Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Shooter?

Shooter + Metroidvania

Of 48 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 123 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×680 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 123 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 123 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.9k → $8.7k → $4.5k → $7.5k → $479 → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $427,215)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 182
Announced 123
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,183 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 123 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Mega Man 11 older $29.99 4,312 89% 129k $3.9M (exactly $3,879,506) CAPCOM CO., LTD.
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Axiom Verge older $19.99 5,834 90% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,650) Thomas Happ Games LLC
Haydee older $14.99 6,226 84% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,832) Haydee Interactive
Mega Man X Legacy Collection older $19.99 4,033 79% 121k $2.4M (exactly $2,418,590) CAPCOM CO., LTD
Supraland Six Inches Under older $19.99 3,975 96% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) Supra Games
Cave Story+ older $14.99 5,230 92% 157k $2.4M (exactly $2,351,931) Nicalis, Inc., Studio Pixel
Out There Somewhere older $9.99 6,160 92% 185k $1.8M (exactly $1,846,152) MiniBoss
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Guns of Fury $14.99 950 88% 29k $427k (exactly $427,215) Gelato Games Ltd
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Dewdrop Dynasty $11.99 233 78% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Goodgis
Clockwork Ambrosia $19.99 133 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Realmsoft
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
DAMON and BABY $19.99 87 89% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) Arc System Works
Last Vanguard $14.99 77 81% 2.3k $35k (exactly $34,627) Cool Tapir Studios
Hellscreen $17.99 45 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $24,286) Jamie D, Mixtape Games UK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.