Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Roguelite

Of 31 developers who shipped a Roguelite Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×655 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 80 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 80 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $589k → $4.5k → $13k → $599 → $600 → $3.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 5% $311k (exactly $311,192)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 111
Announced 80
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Roguelite; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,031 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Rogue Legacy 2 older $24.99 14,238 90% 427k $11M (exactly $10,674,229) Cellar Door Games
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Dungreed older $9.99 8,988 93% 270k $2.7M (exactly $2,693,704) TEAM HORAY
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
ScourgeBringer older $16.99 2,642 87% 79k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,627) Flying Oak Games, E-Studio
Dark Devotion older $19.99 1,925 74% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,154,422) Hibernian Workshop
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
Aura of Worlds $14.99 101 96% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Cognitive Forge
An Amazing Wizard · EA $11.99 98 83% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) Tiny Goblins
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
Veiled Edge · EA $14.99 21 95% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) ONW Studio Inc,
Death Machine $9.99 15 46% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Philip Froelich
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.