Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Puzzle

Of 122 developers who shipped a Puzzle Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 294 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×388 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 294 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 294 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 122
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $5.0k → $13k → $4.5k → $1.8k → $8.4k → $2.9k (still earning) → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 122
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,587)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 5% $184k (exactly $184,377)
Developers, 2 yr 122
Released games 364
Announced 294
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 14,130 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 294 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition older $19.99 62,690 94% 1.9M $38M (exactly $37,595,193) Moon Studios GmbH
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
ANIMAL WELL older $24.99 22,814 95% 684k $17M (exactly $17,103,656) Billy Basso
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Darksiders Warmastered Edition older $19.99 13,942 88% 418k $8.4M (exactly $8,361,017) KAIKO, Vigil Games
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Broken Reality 2000 $14.99 371 76% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Dynamic Media Triad
Elementallis $17.99 263 90% 7.9k $142k (exactly $141,941) AnKae Games
A Planet Full of Cats $7.99 581 89% 17k $139k (exactly $139,266) Devcats

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.