Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Precision Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Precision Platformer Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Precision Platformer

Of 58 developers who shipped a Precision Platformer Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×418 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 136 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 136 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Precision Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $599 → $3.6k → $17k → $10k → $3.0k → $4.8k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Precision Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $958 (exactly $958)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,089)
Top 5% $199k (exactly $198,747)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 177
Announced 136
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Precision Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania, Precision Platformer; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Platformer, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,635 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Aeterna Noctis older $29.99 1,699 76% 51k $1.5M (exactly $1,528,590) Aeternum Game Studios S.L
The End Is Nigh older $14.99 3,291 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,479,963) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Blue Fire older $19.99 1,908 83% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,144,228) Robi Studios
VVVVVV older $4.99 6,657 96% 200k $997k (exactly $996,553) Terry Cavanagh
Rusted Moss older $19.99 1,575 88% 47k $945k (exactly $944,527) Emlise, happysquared, sunnydaze
Bō: Path of the Teal Lotus older $19.99 1,398 82% 42k $838k (exactly $838,381) Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair,… (Squid Shock Studios, Christopher Stair, Trevor Youngquist)
Unbound: Worlds Apart older $19.99 1,200 82% 36k $720k (exactly $719,640) Alien Pixel Studios
La-Mulana 2 older $24.99 818 83% 25k $613k (exactly $613,255) NIGORO
JUMP KING QUEST $14.99 1,202 88% 36k $541k (exactly $540,539) Nexile
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Before I Go $19.99 79 83% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) J's Labratory
Derelict Star $9.99 155 94% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) gate
Beyond the Ice Palace 2 $19.99 77 63% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) STORYBIRD Studio
Aggelos 2 $19.99 61 73% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) WONDERBOY BOBI
Alruna and the Necro-Industrialists $9.99 113 84% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Neckbolt
Maseylia : Echoes of the Past $16.99 61 80% 1.8k $31k (exactly $31,092) Sol Brothers
Beholgar 2 $11.99 77 80% 2.3k $28k (exactly $27,697) Serkan Bakar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.