Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Medieval

Of 320 developers who shipped a Medieval Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 545 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×368 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 545 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 545 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 320
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $3.0k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $3.6k → $3.0k → $959 (still earning) → $864 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 320
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $231k (exactly $230,992)
Developers, 2 yr 320
Released games 829
Announced 545
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 21,270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 155 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 545 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA older $19.99 12,326 70% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,391,902) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
再刷一把2:金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.