Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Magic

Of 69 developers who shipped a Magic Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $51k, ×109 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 99 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 99 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.7k → $1.1k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $449 → $419 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $51,548)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 183
Announced 99
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,547 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III 2025 · $521k Spell Disk 2024 · $434k Goobies 2023 · $335k Deathsmiles I・II 2022 · $116k COTTON REBOOT! 2021 · $105k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
Goobies older $5.99 1,866 90% 56k $335k (exactly $335,320) Höganäs Spel
Deathsmiles I・II older $39.90 97 95% 2.9k $116k (exactly $116,109) CITY CONNECTION, TAKE×0FF
COTTON REBOOT! older $44.99 78 78% 2.3k $105k (exactly $105,277) Rocket-Engine Co.,Ltd.
Savant - Ascent REMIX older $9.99 330 92% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,901) D-Pad Studio
Rhythm Witch: Beat Death $5.99 508 94% 15k $91k (exactly $91,288) Dusklight CO., LTD.
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
Bosorka older $5.99 404 90% 12k $73k (exactly $72,599) Sengi Games
W.A.N.D. Project $9.99 172 68% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) The Knights of Unity
Haunted Lands $5.99 251 77% 7.5k $45k (exactly $45,105) alevgor
東方资志疏 ~ Immortal Immanuel. (东方资志疏) $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) 雾雨威Channel, 沙包聚集地制作组
Touhou Kouzougi　～ Flickerframe Shutter Festival $14.99 47 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Ryann Thierry
DeviDevi Survivor $9.99 51 58% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) PAKOchan Factory
Abyss Horde $4.99 89 84% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Solo Gaming
Hatters · EA $9.99 35 85% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Moon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.