Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Survival game?

Survival + Loot

Of 177 developers who shipped a Loot Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 363 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 363 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 363 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 177
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $4.6k → $1.0k → $6.0k → $1.7k → $1.8k → $4.3k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 177
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,754)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 177
Released games 402
Announced 363
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 198,028 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 363 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Tinkerlands · EA $12.99 3,624 85% 109k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,273) CodeManu, Endless Coffee
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.