Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Space Sim?

Space Sim + Loot

Only 12 developers shipped a Loot Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vanguard Galaxy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×243 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $45k → $359 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,581)
Top 5% $152k (exactly $152,380)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 27
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Loot
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 797 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Space industrial empire older $5.99 1,022 85% 31k $184k (exactly $183,653) 游戏养家工作室
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
Omen $11.99 41 85% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) Codex Interactive LLC
Mars Rover Simulator older $19.99 24 25% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) DexterCoding
Space Killer older $7.99 46 73% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,026) Two friends, VIWESA GAMES
Wrath and Retribution $9.99 23 91% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Mad Vulture Games
A Game About Getting Bigger $3.99 16 87% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) PcZ Games
Infinite Empire · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Better Tools LLC
Relative Frame $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) pangolin studios
GeoLight $2.99 2 0% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Howling Wolf Games Inc.
D.I.G. — Discover Infinite Galaxies · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BloomSpaceGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.