Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Shooter?

Shooter + Loot

Of 123 developers who shipped a Loot Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 254 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2044 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 254 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 254 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $2.2k → $600 → $1.3k → $1.5k → $3.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,083)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 354
Announced 254
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Loot; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Looter Shooter, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 108,133 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 254 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Enter the Gungeon older $14.99 79,392 95% 2.4M $36M (exactly $35,702,582) Dodge Roll
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Neon Abyss 2 · EA $19.99 1,968 68% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) Veewo Games
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.