Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike Deckbuilder › Roguelike Deckbuilder + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Logic

Of 22 developers who shipped a Logic Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $23k, ×49 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 31 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $598 → $5.5k → $599 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 5% $23k (exactly $23,377)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 35
Announced 31
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 350% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder, Logic; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 369 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cobalt Core 2023 · $2.4M GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) 2022 · $379k Super Algebrawl 2024 · $31k Heat Death 2022 · EA · $31k Islantiles 2026 · $27k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) older $9.99 1,266 54% 38k $379k (exactly $379,420) CD PROJEKT RED
Super Algebrawl older $5.99 173 91% 5.2k $31k (exactly $31,088) PUNKCAKE Délicieux
Heat Death · EA older $14.99 68 97% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Gallistrix
Islantiles $14.99 61 90% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Thunderrock Innovations
Birdigo - bird word game $9.99 78 84% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,377) John August, Corey Martin
Words Can Kill older $7.99 92 70% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,052) Typing Monkey
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
Pegs X Stickers $5.99 65 87% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,680) Mister Morris Games, Tyler Ray Games
MistsBook older $11.99 31 100% 930 $11k (exactly $11,151) Dehist Games
COMBOTRONICA $14.99 17 100% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Grid Cortex Games
Tic Tactic $7.99 23 78% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) unbreaded
Glass Cannon $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) LisiSoft
Dominocalypse $11.99 11 100% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Barely Cohesive Games, LLC
Card Homestead $6.99 17 82% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) CoffeeNap Games
Grave New World $4.99 22 90% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) grishkogameplay, Dwang

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.