Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Logic game?

Perma Death + Logic

Of 37 developers who shipped a Perma Death Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×154 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 28 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $5.3k → $198 → $300 → $1.0k → $359 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,470)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,163)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 96
Announced 28
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 564 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.4k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M Let's! Revolution! 2023 · $190k BroomSweeper 2026 · $104k 868-BACK 2026 · $73k Pestis 2018 · $66k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Let's! Revolution! older $19.99 317 92% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) BUCK Games, Antfood
BroomSweeper $17.99 193 75% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) BandsWithLegends
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Pestis older $24.99 88 77% 2.6k $66k (exactly $65,974) DIEDEMOR STUDIO GAMES
Fine Sweeper older $5.99 270 88% 8.1k $49k (exactly $48,519) Pixel Prophecy
Neon older $16.99 55 96% 1.7k $28k (exactly $28,033) Dnovel
Ball Torture older $9.99 90 82% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) SufferSoft
Evertried older $19.99 38 71% 1.1k $23k (exactly $22,789) Lunic Games / Danilo Domingues
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC
Cribbish $4.99 65 81% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Fence Post Games
Minesweeper Together $2.99 64 95% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) anchikai
Rabbit Samurai $5.99 19 89% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) Zerterek
Quantum Loop $5.99 17 100% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) slashslash, Declan Carveth
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
Kitty Rush $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) DFS
Go Ahead $5.49 15 86% 450 $2.5k (exactly $2,470) Broken Project

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.