Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Shooter?

Shooter + Local Multiplayer

Of 142 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 196 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×542 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 196 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 196 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $1.1k → $4.5k → $839 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $341k (exactly $340,630)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 640
Announced 196
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Co-op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 11,475 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 196 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broforce older $14.99 49,512 96% 1.5M $22M (exactly $22,265,546) Free Lives
Serious Sam 3: BFE older $29.99 21,834 87% 655k $20M (exactly $19,644,050) Croteam
Stick Fight: The Game older $4.99 99,952 93% 3.0M $15M (exactly $14,962,814) Landfall West
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Duck Game older $12.99 25,262 97% 758k $9.8M (exactly $9,844,601) Landon Podbielski
Worms W.M.D older $29.99 10,435 85% 313k $9.4M (exactly $9,388,370) Team17
Amazing Frog? · EA older $19.99 11,169 94% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,698,049) Fayju
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
Door Kickers: Action Squad older $13.99 8,778 95% 263k $3.7M (exactly $3,684,127) PixelShard, KillHouse Games
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
Blood: Refreshed Supply™ $29.99 719 71% 22k $647k (exactly $646,884) Nightdive Studios, Monolith Productions
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Rogue Point $19.99 940 63% 28k $564k (exactly $563,718) Crowbar Collective
Agent 64: Spies Never Die $21.64 863 86% 26k $560k (exactly $560,260) Replicant D6
THE HOUSE OF THE DEAD 2: Remake $24.99 607 44% 18k $455k (exactly $455,068) MegaPixel Studio S. A.
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
Platypus Reclayed $14.99 641 99% 19k $288k (exactly $288,258) Claymatic Games
Together: Moon Escape $9.99 868 90% 26k $260k (exactly $260,140) CarlosGameDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.