Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Survival game?

Survival + Life Sim

Of 162 developers who shipped a Life Sim Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 284 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2714 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 284 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 284 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 162
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $6.9k → $2.7k → $1.9k → $12k → $21k → $3.6k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 162
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,108)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094)
Developers, 2 yr 162
Released games 417
Announced 284
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 67,699 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 284 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Chinese Parents older $9.99 23,168 91% 695k $6.9M (exactly $6,943,450) 墨鱼玩游戏
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.