Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Investigation

Only 15 developers shipped an Investigation Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Back to the Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $6.1M, ×9804 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 42 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $38k → $807
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 42
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Investigation
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 8,935 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $540, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $6.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
Lost Dimension older $24.99 221 72% 6.6k $166k (exactly $165,684) FURYU Corporation
Midnight Protocol older $14.99 237 87% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) LuGus Studios
You are the Judge! older $12.99 251 69% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Steel Games
Lust & Legends older $12.99 144 66% 4.3k $56k (exactly $56,117) Entropy Digital Entertainment
The Magister older $14.99 103 91% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Nerdook Productions
Emergency Call 112 - The Attack Squad $14.99 86 48% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Crenetic
My proud girlfriend--Lina Chapter $5.99 210 91% 6.3k $38k (exactly $37,737) zzzgame
Prison Notes $9.99 38 94% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) 闻岚工坊(Vinland Studio)
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
污水危机:起源 Sewage Crisis: Origins $5.99 10 30% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) 水淼水
Fake It $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Androbyte
诡异迷域 $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) 幻想理戈游戏开发工作室
Paranormal Home Invaders $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jaxon Cole
Ambasu · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Ekofi Gaming

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.